How accurate is Uber fare estimate?
It's all depends on Google map,Here I noted down an interesting fact about Google map, many few people know, how Google map get ETA?It's so interesting,I explain this thing with an example,Distance of railway station from my home is around 16km.So once I travel to station and ETA shown in map was 46min in pick hour.After 12am I found ETA 29min.So, Big question is….. how does it work..??now this is only my opinion that Google map tracks last vehicle using GPS on that route and recalculate the time taken for that ride and show live ETA to next user. Sometimes it's integrate more thn many small route to calculate the best way and shorter route for your travel.Now, come to the actual Answer,Uber shows two figures for estimate fare, ie. 110–130, which depends the best time or faster possibility to reach & poor time or slow possibility to reach.But Uber is not using the live GPS tracking for estimate fare, they using simple logic for Minimum and maximum time and according to it application calculate estimate fare for ride.
How important it is to accurately estimate software projects?
There are various approaches which provide reasonable estimates. But most app development companies apply one approach to all of their software development projects. You can’t agree more that estimating an ecommerce website and how to implement a live chat for an existing website are absolutely different directions. Different types of projects require different methods, even if there is a common estimation basis.A method we use at RubyGarage for a website development estimation consists of several steps.First of all, we figure out a product concept, its target audience, their problems and what the business, we are developing a project for, suggests to solve these problems. We gather all the necessary information about an expected website.After all the information we need is gathered, we chunk it into lots of small tasks. We decompose tasks according to the following structure: Epics – User Stories – Use Cases.Then, in case we have had a similar experience in creating such products before, we transfer the hours it took us to create a similar product. Relying on previous experience ensures more accurate estimates. We use this approach of estimation only if a previous product contains tasks that are very similar to those in the project we’re estimating.Whether a project we are developing requires features that we haven’t developed yet, we take an expert judgment approach to estimation. An expert or a group of experts who rely on their experience to estimate software development projects come to terms and we can finalize the estimate.At the final stage when everything is agreed, we present this estimate to our client.
How accurate are Ancestry's DNA tests?
I am no expert on DNA nor a scientist of any kind. But I know from experience that the DNA tests do accurately match you with others with whom you share DNA. The ethnicity estimates are just that - estimates. But in my case at least, they correspond accurately to what I know about my ancestry.I’m going anonymous on this question because this involves something I haven't told anyone but my significant other.I am the product of an affair my mother had. My parents have remained married. Growing up, I had no reason to suspect I was not my father's child. My parents did not tell me until I was an adult. They told me that they thought the man with whom my mother had had an affair was my biological father, though it was possible my dad was my biological father.Naturally, I wanted to know for sure. My dad will always be my dad to me, DNA or no DNA. He was the one that carried me to bed until I was 10, taught me to drive, brought me one flower every time he brought my mom a bouquet. He was and will always be my dad. Still, I still wanted to know for sure. But I didn't want to risk hurting him by asking him to take a DNA test with me, so I let it go.Some years later, I made a family tree on Ancestry. I wanted to fill in what I could while some of my older family members were still alive and could answer questions. While on the site, I read about their DNA testing and was intrigued. I wasn't even thinking about my paternity issue, I was just curious to see what mix of nationalities I have (I'm American).But when the results came in, I was stunned. My dad is the child of Italian immigrants. I had always identified as half Italian. I still thought of my dad as my biological father, even though I knew it was possible he wasn't. But my test results did not show ANY percentage as “Italy/Greece”. Then I looked at the list of others who had taken the test and who had some matching DNA. I saw, as expected, cousins from my mother's side of the family. But I also saw multiple matches who had the last name or were descended from someone with the last name of the man with whom my mother had had the affair. I had my answer. DNA knew the truth.
Are the Zillow Zestimates accurate?
Short answer: not consistently enough to rely upon.Zillow themselves admit that the estimates can be up to 17% incorrect, either way. That can be a whole lot of money!This inaccuracy can be attributable to many things. Zillow’s algorithms rely upon proximity to other comparable homes and they put a lot of weight in comparing homes nearby to the subject. However everyone knows that real estate values can drastically vary even one street over depending on many factors. Zillow also hasn't been to your home, or any of the homes they compare to yours, and do not have any way of knowing how your house really compares to the one three streets over. Did you add on a master suite, remodel your kitchen or put in a pool since you purchased your home? Does your home have hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances and granite countertops, while the other house has oak cabinets, vinyl floors and a blue tile counter?Zillow’s business model is getting agents to pay them for leads so they built an attractive interface for homebuyers and sellers to use. They have no incentive to give you accurate info, as they are in the business of selling leads.The best way to determine your home’s current market value is to choose an experienced local Realtor in your market. That person will use their deep market knowledge and experience to look at your specific home’s condition and amenities as it compares to actual comparables not just random nearby homes and will be able to articulate to you their reasoning. We also look at assessed value, sales that took place off market, and other pertinent information. Realtors will be happy to show you how they arrive at their estimates taking into account micro-local market conditions and your needs. (For instance, you may need a quick sale, so their advice might take that into account, or you could be comfortable taking 45 days to sell). Other sale terms can be quite important, too. Realtors interpret the market but the actual market value is defined as “"what a buyer agrees to pay and a seller will accept”. This can be quite different than a Zillow algorithm derived number. There is no way to “"click here” for your value and feel confident that the number is correct. Much more research is critical. Call your favorite Realtor if you really want to know your market value.
What are the potential inaccuracies and assumptions in Angus Maddison's plot of the history of the world economy? How reliable is it?
This is an overtly simplistic analysis. This question has given me an idea for a blog post to refute the most common claim on Quora that the British rule stole its colonies of its GDP.The post as promised: India's 'stolen' GDP conundrum by Sunny Mewati on The Lone ObjectivistAngus Maddison's estimates according to Angus Maddison himself are 'mere conjecture'. Most peer reviewed evaluation of Angus Maddison's study have dubbed them 'nothing more than an educated guess' or at best 'far fetched speculation'. Why the predictions of GDP are flawed?Angus Maddison divided the the world economic growth into pre-1700 and post 1700 era. There are hundreds of small assumption in his analysis, I will focus on the three potentially wrong ones,Assumption 1: Everyone before 1700 was involved in Subsistence agriculture. He multiplied agricultural productivity to the estimated population to come up with the GDP estimate. This process leaves out hundreds of other variables. [See 3]Since his estimates are for regions that are a cohesive entity now, estimates for Italy are highly flawed. For example, the most productive areas of the Roman Empire agriculturally was North Africa and Eastern Europe. Since they are not a part of Italy now, Maddison skips them while calculating GDP. If Maddison includes these regions in Italy's estimate, it would easily exceed India and China.Assumption 2: Everyone pre 1700 was equally wealthy or poor. This is why India etches ahead of China because India has a larger population compared to China and hence a larger GDP with equal wealth. Even by conservative estimates, the Roman Empire and later Chinese civilizations were more advanced than India in terms of per capita income and technology.Assumption 3: Non agricultural variables had no or minimal impact on GDP. I need not explain that the most important variable missed here is international trade as services were non-existent. Further data snoopingMaddison's data has been the subject if immense data snooping* over the years His data is always presented a way to suit or naturally lead to a desired result. This plot is an example of that. This plot prepared by the Economist using Angus Maddison's already flawed data also used PPP** comparisons to compare global share of India and China over time. The Economist does not sufficiently explains how they came up with the 'model consumption baskets' to compare consumption over time. ***ConclusionMaddison's qualitative claim is somewhat correct, his data might be correct but his assumptions and methodology are not. Datta, Saugato, ed. Economics: making sense of the Modern Economy. John Wiley & Sons, 2011. Maddison, Angus. Contours of the world economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in macro-economic history. Oxford University Press, 2007.* Data dredging Using statistical methods to find relationships between variables. ** For an overview of the controversy regarding PPP, refer to Taylor and Taylor (2004) *** Refer to Samuel Liu comment to Paul Denlinger answer to this question.
How accurate are the search estimates on Google's Keyword Tool?
I'll be the devil's advocate here. I'm not saying that the kw tool is accurate, but frankly, the searches and estimates people are making from it when improperly used are more full of the stuff mentioned above (now below since this, I guess has been bumped up on the list of answers). First off, don't leave it on "broad" matches ever. You're REALLY going to feel like most of the responses here in terms of it's validity. Click on "exact" matches and don't forget to reset it to that when you refresh your browser or start another search. Second, it's an "adwords" estimation tool. Yes, it is trying to estimate the number of impressions for any given keyword (organic or paid), but it's also designed for adwords. I like the idea of setting up a campaign and truly seeing what you get, but not all of us have the time and money to truly validate the numbers for every niche we have to work with. You can use it as what it says it is, an "estimate." You'll have to prove the accurate results in the end. It's for guidance and that's what it was designed for. You'll have to figure out the real world results later when you actually perform the work (organic or ppc). Some numbers have been pretty dead on, but again, I'm very conservative and also deduct a bit of the numbers generated in the tool and do lower estimates in general after dividing out what I think I need to focus on. Unfortunately, it's still the best one for google - at least that exists. So, regardless of all the flack it gets, it's the one and only ,)